Since August 2, Kamala Harris's chances of winning the election have increased by 238%. Analysts warn that Donald Trump's loss could be bad for crypto prices.
Bitcoin price weakened just as Kamala Harris took the lead over Donald Trump in various polls, including crypto-powered betting platform PolyMarket.
Bernstein analysts don't think this is a coincidence.
“Our interpretation of current market sentiment is that a Trump victory would be bullish and a Harris victory bearish (at least in terms of immediate market reaction),” read a new report.
Since the current US Vice President was nominated to run on August 4, Bitcoin has lost 3%.
During that period, the largest cryptocurrency also fell below $50,000 in a market crash fueled by the unwinding of the so-called yen carry trade.
It has yet to return to its all-time high of $73,700 in March.
“Harris' rising shares in Polymarkets spooked crypto markets, with bitcoin bounding the range and unable to recapture its previous June highs” around $70,000, write Bernstein analysts.
Crypto elections
This year's presidential election has become a key topic of discussion in the crypto major vote for the first time.
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Trump's pro-Bitcoin message on the campaign trail — suggesting a national Bitcoin treasury, courting miners and even promising to fire SEC Chair Gary Gensler if he wins — paid off.
Crypto heavyweights like Messari co-founder Ryan Selkis are rooting for him.
During a keynote address at the 2024 Bitcoin Conference, Trump said his campaign had raised about $25 million from the crypto community.
While Harris has not taken a public stance on crypto, her campaign recently added two key advisers who previously worked in the industry.
Former President Barack Obama advisor David Plouffe is on the global advisory board of crypto exchange Binance.
Brian Nelson worked in the Treasury Department's Office for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence.
During his time there, the Treasury Department brought enforcement actions against Binance for violating sanctions and anti-money laundering laws.
Members of the crypto community — including Mark Cuban and Anthony Scaramucci — are also rallying behind her.
The group is called Crypto4Harris They say It is “organizing to support Harris as he pushes for a nuanced policy stance that will keep America at the forefront of digital assets.”
It will hold a digital town hall on August 16.
Crypto market movers
Bitcoin is trading at $59,892, down 1.2% in the last 24 hours. Ethereum is trading up 0.8% at $2,677.
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Liam Kelly is the DeFi Correspondent for DL News. Got a tip? Email at [email protected].
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