Bitcoin is nothing more than a “trump trade” according to the founder of Lekker Capital. The uncertainty of the election denied investors the opportunity to front-run the potential benefits crypto could bring from another Trump term. Quinn Thompson says other factors are bigger cryptocurrency price drivers than the US election.
For a while, Bitcoin's price action and former US President Donald Trump's political fortunes went hand in hand – but not so much anymore.
That's according to Quinn Thompson, founder of Lecker Capital, a hedge fund that specializes in using macroeconomic data to trade crypto assets.
“Bitcoin is more clearly a Trump trade when it has this 60-40 lead against Trump [President] Biden in the election,” Thompson said News.
“It's going to be good for Bitcoin because he's going to win,” Thompson added.
That changed when Biden dropped out of the race and Vice President Kamala Harris became the Democratic Party nominee, Thompson said.
Trump and Harris are now Neck to neck In most polls, and gamblers at Polymarket give them Even odds to win the presidency this November.
Uncertainty surrounding the election has forced investors to hold off on taking a crypto-friendly administration for granted, Thompson said.
In other words, even if Trump continues to make announcements on the crypto industry leading up to November 5 – Election Day, investors won't really be able to anticipate potential changes with the same peace of mind they would have if Trump still won outright.
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“That uncertainty allows other factors to affect the price of bitcoin, such as growth, recession concerns, the Federal Reserve and liquidity in the system,” Thompson said.
Trump and Harris
Historically crypto-agnostic, Trump threw his support behind the crypto industry in early May.
Among other things, he promised to free Silk Road creator Ross Ulbricht, met with bitcoin mining executives and spoke at the biggest crypto event of the year in Nashville, Tennessee.
The Biden administration, meanwhile, has largely given crypto the cold shoulder.
For example, it recently vetoed a motion to repeal SAB 121, a controversial crypto accounting rule, despite bipartisan support for repeal.
Harris' campaign says she wants to “reset” relations with the crypto industry. But till now she has not taken any public stand on the matter.
Tom Carreras writes about markets for DL News. Got a tip on Bitcoin, Trump and the election? arrive at [email protected].
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